Sometimes the market gives you a wake-up call — and yesterday, Commvault Systems (CVLT) did exactly that. The stock tumbled over 16% in a single session, shaking weak hands and pulling back into a major support zone. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s zoom out and see the bigger picture.
The Bigger Picture — A Multi-Year Bullish Structure
If we look at the last few years, CVLT has been following a classic bullish-pullback rhythm:
- 2021 — strong bullish year
- 2022 — healthy correction and consolidation
- 2023-2024 — resumed the uptrend with renewed strength
Now, in 2025, the stock has been forming a sideways trading range.
This range is clearly defined between two important zones:
- 🔺 Upper Resistance: PYH)and YR125 zone (≈ 178.72 – 205.07)
- 🔻 Lower Support: YCPR zone (≈ 126 – 142)
Interestingly, price already took support from this YCPR zone twice — once in February and again in April 2025 — confirming it as a strong demand area.
The Recent Drop — A Selling Climax or Trend Reversal?
On Tuesday, the stock suddenly dropped back into the YCPR zone after months of holding above it.
At first glance, that looks like panic selling — but if you understand price behavior, you’ll notice something deeper.
This sharp decline resembles a selling climax — a point where selling pressure exhausts itself.
When such climaxes occur inside a strong support zone, they often mark the end of a correction, not the start of a bear trend.
If this structure holds, CVLT could easily bounce back toward 205, which means a potential 40% upside move within the trading range.
However, if the range breaks (either way), expect an explosive directional move — because these kinds of consolidations often precede large expansions.
A Classic Example of Price Acceptance
This entire setup is a textbook example of Price Acceptance — how markets digest previous strong movements and prepare for the next leg.
If you haven’t read about this concept yet, check out my detailed guide:
👉 Understanding Price Acceptance
When you understand how price acceptance works, trading such ranges becomes much easier — because you can anticipate when the market is resting and when it’s ready to run again.
Watching CPR for the Next Move
At this point, all eyes are on CPR levels. They act like a trend detector machine, showing where the market is building energy and where the next breakout might begin.
You can learn more about this powerful tool here:
👉 Using CPR as a Trend Detector in Trading
If CVLT breaks this trading range with strong volume and momentum, the move could be explosive — in either direction. For now, we’re watching how the price behaves inside the YCPR zone and whether it can attract fresh buyers again.
Final Thoughts
- CVLT’s 16% drop looks like a selling climax, not a trend breakdown.
- The YCPR zone (126–142) remains the key area to watch.
- A bounce toward 205 could offer significant upside potential.
- But a confirmed breakout or breakdown from this range will define the next long-term trend.
💬 Comment below if you’d like me to share future updates on Commvault Systems (CVLT).
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Cheers !!
Arup MSP
Creator of Pivot Mastery (The Practical Way to Understand Market Context)
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