Yesterday, Ramaco Resources (METC) saw a sharp 12% drop, which naturally caught everyone’s attention. But before jumping to any conclusions, let’s break it down step-by-step and understand what’s really going on — and more importantly, what could happen next.
On the larger timeframe, METC is still trading above both the previous quarter’s and previous year’s highs. That means the stock has been in price discovery mode for quite some time — and the recent move wasn’t just strong, it was extraordinary.
Why do I call it extraordinary? Let’s measure it mechanically.
- In 2022, METC moved $13.30 in the entire year.
- In 2023, it moved $12.68.
- In 2024, it moved $13.67.
Now here comes the surprise — in 2025, the stock has already moved $51.50, and the year isn’t even over yet. That’s almost 4× its typical annual range. When a stock expands its yearly range this much, it’s a sign of a major revaluation, not a random rally.
So, the 12% fall yesterday?
To me, that’s not the start of a bearish market. It looks more like profit booking from long-term holders after a massive run. In such cases, price often enters a range and moves sideways for weeks — sometimes even months — to digest the prior gains.
As a trader, I always look for stocks below their normal range — that’s where the best probability trades exist. For example, METC was an excellent candidate when it was around the $5–6 range, assuming its average yearly range is around $12. Now, after a 4× range expansion, this isn’t a trading recommendation — it’s a lesson in stock selection.
To win consistently, focus on finding stocks before they expand their normal range — not after.
Cheers !!
Arup MSP
Creator of Pivot Mastery (The Practical Way to Understand Market Context)
Follow on X – https://x.com/MSP_Traders
