A few days ago, I was going through the charts of Eli Lilly and Company (Ticker: LLY).
The stock had already fallen about 25% from its all-time high, and as I pulled up the chart, something interesting caught my eye.
Price was trading above the monthly CPR (Central Pivot Range).
Now, if you’ve studied pivot points even at a basic level, you probably know the rule:
👉 Above CPR = bullish trend
At first glance, that’s exactly what it looked like. The textbook setup was right there in front of me. But deep inside, I knew something was missing.
The Half-Truth That Can Hurt You
If I had just looked at the monthly CPR, I could have easily convinced myself:
“LLY is above CPR, so the trend is bullish. Time to buy!”
But here’s the problem.
That’s only half the truth.
And trading on half the truth is a recipe for unnecessary losses.
Zooming Out With Yearly CPR
So instead of rushing in, I decided to zoom out. I plotted not only the monthly CPR (yellow lines) but also the yearly CPR (purple lines) on the chart.
That’s when the bigger picture came alive.
Yes, the stock was above the monthly CPR…
But it was still below the yearly CPR.
And that’s a completely different story.
What This Really Means
Think of it like this:
- Monthly CPR = the local weather forecast.
- Yearly CPR = the overall climate.
The weather may look sunny today, but if the climate is still cold, the warmth won’t last long.
For Eli Lilly, the climate was bearish.
Until the stock sustains above the yearly CPR, any bullish move is just a small bounce in a bigger downtrend.
In fact, the chart showed a clear possibility of price drifting back to the previous year’s low around 579.
My Swing Trading Approach
As a swing trader, I focus on momentum moves.
- If the stock stays above the monthly CPR and climbs above the yearly CPR, that’s where momentum really starts to build.
- But if it fails? I don’t argue with the market. I exit fast and move on to the next opportunity.
For me, it’s not about being “right” every time—it’s about reducing risk and staying in sync with momentum.
The Lesson From Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly’s chart reminded me of a simple but powerful truth:
👉 Never judge the trend using a single pivot timeframe.
The monthly CPR can tempt you with short-term signals, but the yearly CPR reveals the bigger game being played.
If you only look at one, you’ll always miss half the story.
📖 Want to Learn More?
If this concept is new to you and you’d like to explore pivot points step by step, here’s a good place to begin: 👉 The Power of Multi-Timeframe Pivot Points: A Trader’s Guide
Cheers !!
Arup MSP
Creator of Pivot Mastery (The Practical Way to Understand Market Context)
Follow on X – https://x.com/MSP_Traders