I like to study futures price movement alongside Open Interest (OI) because the combination can provide a better picture of market participation.
In Axis Bank Futures, the period from 12 to 28 August 2026 shows a clear change in positioning.
Between 12 and 18 August, price moved higher while OI increased. This indicated long buildup, with fresh positions entering as the price advanced.
The structure changed from 19 August onward. Price came under pressure while OI continued to rise. The move was particularly visible on 24 August, when price declined and OI increased sharply. This suggested fresh short buildup.
By 25 August, OI had moved close to 9.8 crore shares, while price remained relatively weak.
However, the following sessions brought a different picture. From 26 to 28 August, Axis Bank Futures recovered towards ₹1,268 while OI declined. I interpret this combination as short covering rather than strong fresh long buildup.
My current reading
- 12–18 Aug: Long buildup
- 19–25 Aug: Short buildup
- 26–28 Aug: Short covering
- The recent price recovery therefore needs to be viewed carefully.
- Further price and OI confirmation will be important to determine whether this develops into a fresh bullish phase.
For me, the important lesson is that price alone doesn’t tell the complete story. The direction of OI can help understand whether positions are being added or unwound during a move.
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Cheers !!
Arup MSP
Creator of Pivot Mastery (The Practical Way to Understand Market Context)
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational and forward-testing documentation purposes only. It reflects personal market observation and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. I am not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment advisor. Please consult a qualified professional before making any trading or investment decisions.