Heading into this week, most of us were expecting more of the same pain. After two straight weeks of aggressive selling, the entire trading desk was leaning heavily bearish. In our previous weekly review on why the Monthly CPR acted like a magnet, we broke down how key pivot zones were pulling price down. But the market has a funny way of keeping everyone humble, and this week gave us a textbook reminder to trade what we see, not what we hope for.
The Open That Flipped the Script
If you trade CPR setups, you know the basic rule of thumb: in a solid downtrend, price consistently opens and stays below the Weekly CPR. For the past two weeks, the market followed that script to the letter.
This week completely broke the pattern right at the opening bell by starting above the Weekly CPR. We call this a clear change of bias. It does not mean you immediately jump in with massive long positions, but it definitely tells you to stop blindly shorting every tick. The buyers stepped up right at the open to absorb the supply.
Stuck in the Middle: A Classic Rotational Market
Instead of kicking off a runaway rally, the price action turned into a choppy tug-of-war. The sellers couldn’t push prices down to form fresh lows like they did over the last couple of weeks. At the same time, the bulls didn’t have enough muscle to break and close above last week’s high.
We ended up with a classic trading range where neither side had total control. In market conditions like this, trend-following strategies usually get chopped up, making quick range-bound plays the only sensible approach.
Trapped Inside the Monthly CPR Chop Zone
When you step back and look at the monthly chart, the reason for this hesitation makes complete sense. We are sitting right smack in the middle of the Monthly CPR.
The inside of a Monthly CPR is notoriously known as a chop zone. If we want to see a real, clean trending move, Nifty needs to break decisively out of this monthly range first. Until we see a firm close outside those boundaries, protecting your trading capital and staying patient is your best edge.
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See you next weekend with the next chart.
Cheers !!
Arup MSP
Creator of Pivot Mastery (The Practical Way to Understand Market Context)
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Disclaimer: This post is for educational and forward-testing documentation purposes only. It reflects personal market observation and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. I am not a SEBI-registered research analyst or investment advisor. Please consult a qualified professional before making any trading or investment decisions.